natural_disaster_death_damage_roll_effect

natural_disaster_death_damage_roll_effect = {
	save_scope_as = situation
	every_situation_county = {
		every_county_province = {
			every_character_in_location = { add_to_list = killable_characters }
			every_army_in_location = { add_to_list = damageable_armies }
		}
	}
	# Risk of characters to die or their armies to get damaged
	every_in_list = {
		list = killable_characters
		if = {
			limit = { is_pool_character = yes }
			add_to_list = killed_characters				
			commanding_army ?= { add_to_list = damaged_armies }
			knight_army ?= { add_to_list = damaged_armies }
		}
		else = {
			random = {
				chance = natural_disaster_base_death_chance_value
				add_to_list = killed_characters
				commanding_army ?= { add_to_list = damaged_armies }
				knight_army ?= { add_to_list = damaged_armies }
			}
		}
	}
	# Risk of armies to get damaged if they weren't already from their leader commander/knight dying
	every_in_list = {
		list = damageable_armies
		limit = {
			NOT = { is_in_list = damaged_armies }
		}
		random = { # 25% to 50% base risk of getting damaged depending on size, plus more from type and severity
			chance = 25
			modifier = {
				add = {
					value = army_size
					divide = 1000
					max = 25
				}
			}
			modifier = { # Earthquakes are more deadly
				scope:situation = { situation_type = natural_disaster_earthquake }
				factor = 1.5
			}
			modifier = { # Earthquake epicenters are more deadly
				scope:situation.var:epicenter_county ?= location.county
				factor = 1.5
			}
			add_to_list = damaged_armies
		}
	}

	# EVENTS
	# Inform players they may die.
	every_player = {
		limit = { is_in_list = killed_characters }
		add_to_list = informees
		trigger_event = natural_disaster.5101
	}

	# Otherwise inform players of any deaths.
	every_in_list = {
		list = killed_characters
		save_scope_as = killed_character
		every_player = {
			if = {
				limit = { 
					scope:killed_character = { is_travelling = yes }
					this = current_travel_plan.travel_plan_owner
				}
				save_scope_as = message_receiver_temp
			}
			else_if = {
				limit = { 
					scope:killed_character = { is_in_army = yes }
					this = knight_army.army_commander
				}
				save_scope_as = message_receiver_temp
			}
			else_if = {
				limit = { 
					scope:killed_character = { exists = involved_activity }
					involved_activity ?= scope:killed_character.involved_activity
				}
				save_scope_as = message_receiver_temp
			}
			else_if = {
				limit = { 
					scope:killed_character = { liege_or_court_owner = prev }
				}
				save_scope_as = message_receiver_temp
			}
			else_if = {
				limit = {
					OR = {
						is_of_major_interest_trigger = { CHARACTER = scope:killed_character }
						is_of_minor_interest_trigger = { CHARACTER = scope:killed_character }
					}
				}
				save_scope_as = message_receiver_temp
			}
		}
		scope:message_receiver_temp ?= {
		    if = {
		    	limit = {
		    		any_character_situation = { this = scope:situation } # we literally do not care if we aren't subject to the disaster
					NOT = { is_in_list = informees }
				}
				add_to_list = informees

				if = {
					limit = {
						any_in_list = {
							list = killed_characters
							location = prev.location
						}
					}
					save_scope_as = local_death
				}

As written in game/common/scripted_effects/10_dlc_tgp_natural_disaster_scripted_effects.txt.