hostile_scheme_monthly_discovery_chance_effect

hostile_scheme_monthly_discovery_chance_effect = {
	# If we're in the first X months of a scheme, give a grace period.
	if = {
		limit = {
			has_variable = secrecy_grace_period
			var:secrecy_grace_period >= 1
		}
		change_variable = {
			name = secrecy_grace_period
			add = -1
		}
	}
	# Otherwise we want to start checking for discovery.
	else_if = {
		# Without a spymaster, you can't discover schemes.
		## This isn't tooltipped for the person doing the scheming: communicating it (and when it turns on, and when it turns off) would be erratic and spammy, so we just let them think they're getting nice'n'lucky.
		limit = {
			scope:scheme = {
				# Character
				trigger_if = {
					limit = { exists = scheme_target_character.host }
					scheme_target_character.host = { save_temporary_scope_as = breach_host_temp }
				}
				# Title
				trigger_else_if = {
					limit = { exists = scheme_target_title.holder }
					scheme_target_title.holder = { save_temporary_scope_as = breach_host_temp }
				}
				# Fallback
				trigger_else = { always = no }
				scope:breach_host_temp ?= {
					# Second for Adventurers
					trigger_if = { 
						limit = { has_government = landless_adventurer_government }
						court_position:second_camp_officer ?= { save_temporary_scope_as = breach_maker_temp }
					}
					# Spymaster for everyone else
					trigger_else = {
						cp:councillor_spymaster ?= { save_temporary_scope_as = breach_maker_temp }
					}
				}
			}
		}	
		# Sort scopes.
		## Vs. titles.
		if = {
			limit = { exists = scope:target.holder }
			scope:target.holder = { save_scope_as = target }
		}
		## Vs. characters.
		else = {
			scope:target = { save_scope_as = target }
		}
		## Nab the spymaster too.
		scope:breach_maker_temp = { save_scope_as = spymaster }
		# Alright, now we roll for discovery.
		# Save chance for simple debugging
		save_scope_value_as = {
			name = discovery_chance
			value = monthly_scheme_discovery_chance_value
		}
		## ... if scope:target lives at scope:owner's court.
		if = {
			limit = {
				scope:breach_host_temp = scope:owner
				scope:owner != scope:target
				NOT = { exists = scope:scheme.var:had_self_court_discovery }
			}
			random = {
				chance = scope:discovery_chance
				# Either increment breaches.
				if = {
					limit = { scheme_breaches >= scheme_breaches_about_to_hit_limit_value }
					increment_breaches_with_message_effect = yes
				}
				# Or expose us generally.
				else = {
					add_scheme_breach = 1
					scope:owner = { play_sound_effect = "event:/DLC/EP3/SFX/Stingers/Scheme_Rework/ep3_mx_sting_schemerework_scheme_suffering_breaches" }
					set_variable = {
						name = had_self_court_discovery
						value = yes
						years = 3
					}
					scope:owner = {
						if = {
							limit = {
								scope:scheme = { is_savable_murder_scheme_trigger = yes }
							}
							trigger_event = hostile_scheme_discovery.4002
						}
						else = { trigger_event = hostile_scheme_discovery.4001 }
					}
					# Flag that we're discovering something so that on-going events don't fire.
					save_scope_value_as = {
						name = discovery_event_happening
						value = yes
					}
				}
			}
		}
		## ... otherwise they're at different courts.
		else_if = {
			limit = {
				NOR = {
					# You won't expose your own Scheme
					scope:owner = scope:target
					# Spymaster won't expose their own Scheme
					scope:owner = scope:spymaster
					# Spymaster won't expose *your* (liege's) Scheme
					scope:owner = scope:spymaster.liege
					# Spymaster won't expose a scheme if they are an agent of it
					## Secrecy is still relevant, you can still be discovered, just not on the monthly tick.
					scheme_is_character_agent = scope:spymaster
				}
			}
			# Roll to see whether we discover something.
			random = {
				chance = scope:discovery_chance
				# If the scheme isn't exposed, then we do that first.

As written in game/common/scripted_effects/00_scheme_scripted_effects.txt.